Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 5:11 pm CST on Monday 13 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 16 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical low (15U) remains as a weak system in the western Gulf of Carpentaria coast. The risk for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone is now assessed as Low for Tuesday 14th and Wednesday 15th February as conditions have become somewhat unfavourable for the system to develop into a cyclone. The low is expected to move southeastwards initially, then over southern Gulf coast on Thursday 16th February. The ratings are expected to be Very Low from Thursday.

Low 15U may track westwards across Northern Territory during the weekend. There is a small chance that 15U may push off the west Kimberley coast or over Browse Basin from Monday 20th February next week.

There are no other tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Tuesday:

Low

Wednesday:

Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/