IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 14 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Friday 17 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical Low (15U) lies over the western Gulf of Carpentaria. The risk for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone is assessed as Low from today (Tuesday 14 February) to Thursday 16 February. The low lies in an environment unfavourable for significant development, however as it is a very small tropical low there remains a 5-10% risk of rapid development whilst it lies over the waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. The low is expected to move southeastwards initially, then over southern Gulf coast late on Wednesday or Thursday 16th February.

From Friday 17 February, Tropical Low 15U is forecast to track westwards over land across the Northern Territory either dissipating or potentially moving over the Kimberley in Western Australia later in the weekend. This results in Very Low risk for the remainder of the next seven days from Friday 17 February to Tuesday 21 February.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

There are no other tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/