IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 17 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Monday 20 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical Low 15U lies over land south of Gulf of Carpentaria waters. On Saturday 18 February, Tropical Low 15U is forecast to track westwards over land across the Northern Territory and dissipate. The risk for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone is Very Low.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

There are no other significant tropical systems in the region.

The trough across northern Australia is expected to become more active from mid next week. One or two lows may form within the trough from Thursday 23 February, most likely in the Gulf of Carpentaria. However, with uncertainty in model guidance and a less than favourable environment for development in this area, the risk of another significant system forming in the next seven days is Very Low.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/