Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 18 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 21 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The trough over northern Australia is expected to become more active from mid next week. There is a chance one or tropical lows may form within the trough most likely over the Gulf of Carpentaria but also over the Timor Sea from Thursday 23 February. From Saturday 25 February if the system in the Gulf of Carpentaria has formed, it may start to strengthen a little. However, with uncertainty in model guidance and a less than favourable environment for development in this area, the risk of these systems developing into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days is Very Low.

Likelihood of a system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/