Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 19 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 22 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant lows in the region. The trough over northern Australia is expected to become more active from mid next week. A tropical low may form in the Gulf of Carpentaria next weekend but would struggle to develop in a less than favourable environment. The risk of this systems developing into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days is Very Low.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

A second weak low may form over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf from Friday 24 February but is not expected to develop before moving over land during the weekend. A Very Low risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days.

There are no other significant systems expected in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/