Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 22 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 25 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant lows in the region. The trough over northern Australia is becoming more active. A tropical low may form along this trough in the Gulf of Carpentaria from Sunday 26 February and move to the east. However, it is not expected to significantly develop in the Northern region.

The risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region during the next seven days is Very Low.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

A weak tropical low may form near the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Thursday or Friday. It will move east over land during the weekend and not develop further. A Very Low risk this system develops into a tropical cyclone.

There are no other significant systems expected in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/