IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 23 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 26 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant lows in the region. The trough over northern Australia is becoming more active. There is a risk a tropical low may form form along this trough in the Gulf of Carpentaria early next week. However, it is not expected to significantly develop in the Northern region within the next seven days.

The risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region during the next seven days is Very Low.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

A weak tropical low may form near the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf tonight or Friday. It is likely to be slow moving near the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and over land during the weekend, limiting any further development. By Monday or Tuesday, the system is likely to have moved over land over the western Top End or Kimberley. A Very Low risk this system develops into a tropical cyclone.

There are no other significant systems expected in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/