Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 26 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 1 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A slow moving tropical low (17U) was located west of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. It is likely to remain slow moving over or near land for the remainder of the weekend and on Monday. In the longer term, it may begin to move east across the base of the Top End. Given that this system is most likely to remain over land, there is a Very Low risk that it will develop into a tropical cyclone during the next seven days.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for conditions associated with this system and the monsoon; refer to that product for more information.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

The monsoon trough extends through the central Gulf of Carpentaria. A weak tropical low may form along this trough in the Gulf of Carpentaria during the coming days. However, conditions are unfavourable for further development and there is a Very Low risk any such low will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.

There are no other significant systems expected in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/