IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 6:01 pm CST on Monday 27 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 2 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 530pm ACST Monday 27 February, tropical low (16U) was located near 14.1S 126.5E, near Kalumburu on the north Kimberley coast and was tracking to the east-southeast. This low is forecast to continue southeast this evening and overnight, to eventually merge with another tropical low (17U) located further to the southeast during Tuesday. Although Tropical Low 16U is a Very Low (<5%) risk of developing to be a tropical cyclone due to its position over land, gales are occurring to the north of the low over the coastal fringe and adjacent waters of the north Kimberley and are expected to continue this evening and overnight over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for conditions associated with this system and the monsoon; refer to that product for more information.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

A slow moving tropical low (17U) was located south of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf near 17.6S 129.5E at 1pm ACST Monday 27 February. It is likely to remain slow moving over land, south of the Top End for the remainder of the week. In the longer term, there is a high degree of uncertainty in the exact location of the low, though it is expected to remain embedded with a trough that extends from the Kimberley to the Gulf of Carpentaria. The risk of this system developing to be a tropical cyclone is Very Low within the next seven days, though it is expected to contribute to significant rainfall through northern parts of the Northern Territory this week.

There are no other significant tropical systems forecast to develop in the Northern Region within the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/