Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 28 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Friday 3 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) lies over land near the WA/NT border and was located near 16.1S 129.1E at 1pm ACST Tuesday 28 February. The system is likely to move slowly to the east, south of the Top End for the remainder of the week. It may reach the Gulf of Carpentaria from Sunday and there is a Low risk it may develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday 6 March and Tuesday 7 March.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for conditions associated with this system and the monsoon; refer to that product for more information.

There are no other significant tropical systems forecast to develop in the Northern Region within the next seven days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/