Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 1 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 4 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) lies over land in the western parts of central Northern Territory and was located near 18.2S 131.2E at 1pm ACST Wednesday 1 March. The system is likely to move to the east, south of the Top End for the remainder of the week. It may reach the Gulf of Carpentaria from Sunday where it may develop further before moving back over the Top End mid next week. There is a Low risk it may develop into a tropical cyclone from Monday 6 March to Wednesday 8 March.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for conditions associated with this system and the monsoon; refer to that product for more information.

There are no other significant tropical systems forecast to develop in the Northern Region within the next seven days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/