Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 2 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 5 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) lies over land in the central parts Northern Territory and was located near 17.3S 131.5E at 1pm ACST Thursday 2 March. The system is likely to move east over land until the weekend when it may reach the Gulf of Carpentaria and could develop. Early to mid next week 16U could be over land, or the Gulf of Carpentaria, or may move back (west) over the Top End towards the Joesph Bonaparte Gulf. There is a Low risk it may develop into a tropical cyclone (in the Gulf of Carpentaria) from Monday 6 March to Thursday 8 March.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for conditions associated with this system and the monsoon; refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/warnings/ for more information.

There are no other significant tropical systems forecast to develop in the Northern Region within the next seven days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/