Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:20 pm CST on Friday 3 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Monday 6 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) lies over land in the central parts Northern Territory and was located near 17.4S 134.5E at 1pm ACST Friday 3 March, about 270 km west southwest of Borroloola. The system is likely to move east reach the Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday and be slow-moving over the following days. Early to mid next week 16U could remain over the Gulf of Carpentaria, or may move west over the Northern Territory. While it is likely to remain weak on Sunday and Monday, the risk of it developing increases by Wednesday especially if it remains over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The risk if developing into a tropical cyclone is rated as Low on Monday and Tuesday (5-6 March) increasing to Moderate from Wednesday to Friday (7-9 March).

A Severe Weather Warning is current for conditions associated with this system and the monsoon; refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/warnings/ for more information.

There are no other significant tropical systems forecast to develop in the Northern Region within the next seven days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/