Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 4 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 7 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) lies over the eastern Carpentaria District of the Northern Territory, located near 16.7S 137.1E at 1pm ACST Saturday 4 March, about 110 km southeast of Borroloola. The low is expected to move over the Gulf of Carpentaria by Sundy and be slow-moving during the week. Most likely the low will not develop significantly but there is a small chance of intensification on Wednesday and Thursday in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria region.

The risk of a tropical cyclone forming is low on Monday and Tuesday (6-7 March), then moderate on Wednesday and Thursday (8-9 March), then low for Friday and Saturday (10-11 March).

A Severe Weather Warning is current for conditions associated with this system and the monsoon; refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/warnings/ for more information.

There are no other significant tropical systems forecast to develop in the Northern Region within the next seven days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Low

Tuesday:

Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/