Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 8:40 am CST on Sunday 5 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 7 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) lies near the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, located near 16.0S 137.5E at 8am ACST Sunday 5 March, near the NT/Qld border about 130 km east of Borroloola. The low is expected to be slow-moving during the week in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria region and enhance thunderstorm activity across the Gulf region. However, at this stage it is not expected to develop significantly and the risk of a tropical cyclone forming is rated as Low on Monday 6 March to Friday 10 March. Thereafter the low is more likely to be overland and the risk reduces to Very Low.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for conditions associated with this system and the monsoon; refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/warnings/ for more information.

There are no other significant tropical systems forecast to develop in the Northern Region within the next seven days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Low

Tuesday:

Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/