Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 6 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 9 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) lies near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, located near 16.2S 137.9E at 1pm ACST Monday 6 March, near the NT/Qld border about 170 km east of Borroloola. The low has been slow moving during the past 24 hours. It may drift slowly eastward during the remainder of the week while remaining near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast.

While the low is enhancing thunderstorm activity across the Gulf region, at this stage it is not expected to develop significantly. The risk of a tropical cyclone forming is rated as Low from Tuesday 7 March to Thursday 9 March. Thereafter the low is more likely to be over land and the risk reduces to Very Low from Friday 10 March to Monday 13 March.

There are no other significant tropical systems forecast to develop in the Northern Region within the next seven days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Tuesday:

Low

Wednesday:

Low

Thursday:

Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/