Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 7 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Friday 10 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) lies over land south of the Gulf of Carpentaria, located near 17.4S 138.1E at 1:30pm ACST Tuesday 7 March, near the NT/Qld border about 75 km west-northwest of Doomadgee. The low is currently moving to the southwest but is expected to turn to the east tonight and remain near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast until Thursday. In the longer term it may turn south and move inland over northwestern Queensland.

Although the low may move back over the Gulf of Carpentaria briefly later in the week, it is not expected to develop significantly. The risk of a tropical cyclone forming has decreased to Very Low for the next seven days.

There are no other significant tropical systems forecast to develop in the Northern Region within the next seven days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/