Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 8 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 11 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) lies over land near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, located near 18.0S 138.7E at 1pm ACST Wednesday 8 March, near Doomadgee. The low is expected to move slowly east near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast overnight before turning south to weaken over land over northwestern Queensland by Friday. It is not expected to develop significantly.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for conditions associated with this system, refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/warnings/ for more information.

There are no other significant tropical systems forecast to develop in the Northern Region within the next seven days.

The risk of a tropical cyclone forming is Very Low for the next seven days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/