Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:28 pm CST on Thursday 16 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 19 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical systems in the region at present.

A small amount of model guidance indicates a weak low could form in the Arafura Sea/Timor Sea next Wednesday/Thursday and track to the southwest. At this stage the environment is generally unfavourable, however there is a Low risk on Thursday 23 March for the system to develop and reach tropical cyclone intensity.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/