Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 30 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 2 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 22U, has formed over northern Arafura Sea or Banda Sea. The low is expected remain as a weak system as it tracks slowly west southwest and from weekend it could move into the northern Timor Sea or adjacent Arafura Sea. Early next week 22U will likely be west of the region. Latest guidance continues to indicate 22U as a Very Low risk of developing in the region.

Another tropical low, 23U, may form in the Arafura Sea next Wednesday or Thursday. At this stage model guidance indicates 23U will be a weak system. Very Low risk for 23U.

There are no significant tropical lows expected in the region during the next seven days. Very Low risk for next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/