Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 31 March 2023
for the period until midnight CST Monday 3 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 23U, may form in the Arafura Sea next Wednesday or Thursday. While it may begin to develop as it moves west later in the week, it is expected to remain well below tropical cyclone intensity before moving out of the region next weekend. There is a Low likelihood of 23U becoming a tropical cyclone next Friday 7 April prior to moving out of the region.

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region during the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/