Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 2 April 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 5 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 23U, may form in the Arafura Sea during Wednesday or Thursday. While 23U may begin to develop as it moves west later in the week, it is expected to remain below tropical cyclone intensity at least until Friday 7 April. From Saturday 8 April 23U has a Low risk of becoming a tropical cyclone. During Sunday 9 April 23U may be either in the western Timor Sea or to the west of the northern region, the risk of it being a tropical cyclone in the region is Low.

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region during the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/