Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 3 April 2023
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 6 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 23U, is expected form in the Arafura Sea during Wednesday or Thursday. It is expected to move west and may start to strengthen in the Timor Sea on the weekend. From Saturday 8 April til Monday 10 April there is a Low likelihood that 23U becomes a tropical cyclone before it is expected to move further west and out of the region early next week.

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region during the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/