Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 4 April 2023
for the period until midnight CST Friday 7 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 23U, is expected to form in the Arafura Sea during Wednesday or Thursday and move slowly west while remaining weak. During the weekend it is expected to move southwest through the Timor Sea and start to gradually strengthen. From Saturday 8 April til Sunday 9 April there is a Low likelihood that 23U becomes a tropical cyclone. This increases to Moderate on Monday 10 April before it moves further west and out of the region and the likelihood of it being a tropical cyclone in the region returns to Low on Tuesday 11 April.

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region during the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/