Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 5 April 2023
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 8 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 23U, is forming in the Arafura Sea and if forecast to move slowly west while remaining weak. On the weekend it is expected to move southwest through the Timor Sea and gradually strengthen. From Saturday 8 April until Sunday 9 April there is a Low likelihood that 23U becomes a tropical cyclone. This increases to Moderate on Monday 10 April before it moves further west and out of the region and the likelihood of it being a tropical cyclone in the region returns to Low on Tuesday 11 April. During Wednesday 12 April 23U is likely to the west of the region and the risk of it being a tropical cyclone in the northern region is Very Low.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Low

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region during the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/