Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:21 pm CST on Friday 7 April 2023
for the period until midnight CST Monday 10 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 23U, was located about 300 km north of Melville and Bathurst Islands at 1230 ACST. It is expected to be slow moving Friday and Saturday before moving to the west southwest across the Timor Sea north of the Kimberley coast on during Sunday. The risk of it becoming a tropical cycle increases to Moderate on Sunday. The likelihood remains Moderate on Monday 10 April as the increasing chance of being a tropical cyclone is balanced by the likelihood it will move further west and out of the region. The risk decreases to Low on Tuesday 11 April then Very Low on Wednesday 12 April.

The presence of the low off the coast is likely to increase storm activity about the Tiwi Islands and adjacent coastline for the next few days and then about the north Kimberley coast from Sunday to Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Saturday:

Low

Sunday:

Moderate

Monday:

Moderate

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region during the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/