Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 12:06 pm CST on Saturday 8 April 2023
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 11 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 23U, was located about 320 km north northwest of Darwin at 0930 ACST. It is expected to move slowly to the southwest on Saturday and Sunday through the Timor Sea and gradually develop. The risk of it becoming a tropical cycle increases to Moderate on Sunday. The likelihood remains Moderate on Monday 10 April - as the increasing chance of being a tropical cyclone is balanced by the likelihood it will move further west and out of the region. The risk decreases to Very Low on Tuesday 11 April as the system will be out of the region.

The presence of the low off the coast is likely to enhance storm activity about the Tiwi Islands and adjacent coastline and then about the north Kimberley coast from Sunday to Tuesday.

A Tropical Cyclone Advice is current and refer to latest information at: www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Sunday:

Moderate

Monday:

Moderate

Tuesday:

Very Low

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region during the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/