Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 4:10 am CST on Monday 10 April 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 12 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 23U, was located about 640 km west of Darwin at 330am ACST Monday. It is moving to the west southwest through the Timor Sea and gradually developing. While the risk of it becoming a tropical cyclone is High, it is moving to the west and out of the region. The risk of it becoming a tropical cycle in the reigon is Very Low.

A Tropical Cyclone Advice is current and refer to latest information at: www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region during the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/