Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 28 December 2022
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 31 December 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is over central parts of the Northern Territory. It is moving to the northwest and expected to move into the Kimberley during Thursday. The most likely scenario is for Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie to remain over land. If it moves over water to the west of the Kimberley there is a low risk it could quickly develop into a tropical cyclone.

Regardless of development, associated heavy rainfall and gusty showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Kimberley. Refer to the latest warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/