Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 29 December 2022
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 1 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie has moved over the Kimberley. It is expected to remain over land for the rest of the week and over the weekend. From next week Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is expected to begin moving to the south. The most likely scenario is for Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie to remain over land. However, if it moves over water mid next week, to the west of the Kimberley there is a low risk it could re-develop into a tropical cyclone.

Regardless of development, associated heavy rainfall and gusty showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Kimberley. Refer to the latest warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/