Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Saturday 31 December 2022
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 3 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is over inland parts of the Kimberley, at 1100 AWST Saturday 31 December 2022 was located near 17.5S 128.1E, approximately 90 kilometres north-northeast of Halls Creek. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is forecast to remain over the inland Kimberley and to be very slow moving for the next 36 to 48 hours before slowly moving west next week. There is now more likelihood than not that it will move offshore from the west Kimberley coast, most likely on Wednesday, and then is likely to re-intensify over open waters north of the east Pilbara on Thursday and Friday. By next weekend it is likely for this system to be moving south-southeast over land.

Regardless of development, associated heavy rainfall and squalls from showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Kimberley, extending into the east Pilbara next week with flooding expected to cause disruptions to the area. Refer to the latest warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Low

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/