Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 1 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 4 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is over inland parts of the Kimberley. At 1100 AWST Saturday 1 January 2023 it was located near 17.3S 126.6E, approximately 150 kilometres northeast of Fitzroy Crossing. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is expected to remain slow moving over the inland Kimberley for the remainder of Sunday. Later on Monday it will begin moving slowly west and is expected to be near the west Kimberley coast on Wednesday. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie could move far enough west, and offshore from the Kimberley coast, to reach open water and re-intensify to the north of the east Pilbara on Thursday, before turning towards the south or southeast on Friday.

Regardless of development, associated heavy rainfall and squalls from showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Kimberley, extending into the east Pilbara later in the week with flooding expected to cause disruptions to the area. Refer to the latest warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Moderate

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/