Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 2 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 5 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is over inland parts of the Kimberley. At 1100 AWST Monday 2 January it was located near 17.3S 126.6E, approximately 80 kilometres north-northwest of Halls Creek. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is expected to move west during Tuesday before becoming slow moving near the west Kimberley coast on Wednesday and then moving back inland to the southeast on Friday. Heavy rainfall and flooding is occurring over the Kimberley and expected to continue near the system for the rest of the week with gale force winds also possibly developing in coastal areas as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie approaches the coast. Refer to the latest warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie could move further west and over water off the west Kimberley coast on Wednesday or Thursday where it could then redevelop into a tropical cyclone. If it does move offshore it would most likely then cross the coast again in the vicinity of 80 Mile Beach on Friday and weaken as it moves inland to the southeast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Low

Thursday:

Moderate

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/