Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:05 pm WST on Tuesday 3 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Friday 6 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm AWST Tuesday 3 January ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie was located near 18.7S 124.5E, approximately 250 kilometres east southeast of Broome, moving west at 11 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to continue moving towards the west Kimberley coast on Wednesday then slowing on Thursday before moving to the southeast on Friday.

Although the low is likely to remain over land not redevelop into a tropical cyclone, there remains a chance it moves just offshore and intensifies on Thursday. If it does move offshore it would most likely then cross the coast again in the vicinity of 80 Mile Beach later Thursday and weaken as it moves inland to the southeast.

Heavy rainfall and flooding is occurring over the Kimberley and expected to continue near the system for the next few days with gale force winds also possibly developing about the west Kimberley coast as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie approaches the coast. Refer to the latest warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Wednesday:

Low

Thursday:

Moderate

Friday:

Low

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/