Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 6 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Monday 9 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 1100 AWST 6 January, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie was located approximately 150 kilometres south of Fitzroy Crossing moving east-southeast at 15 km/h. The low is expected to continue southeast and is forecast to move over the southwest of the Northern Territory during Saturday before dissipating on Sunday or early next week.

As Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie moves further inland heavy rainfall is expected to continue near the system. Major flooding due to significant rainfall is a continuing hazard across the central and western Kimberley. Refer to the latest warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/