Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:03 pm WST on Friday 20 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Monday 23 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is expected to move west into the region from the Timor Sea region by mid-next week. It is expected to then move west southwest to the north of Western Australia but remain a weak system. The likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region is Very Low for the next five days increasing to a Low likelihood next Thursday and Friday 26-27 January.

Likelihood of this being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

The monsoon trough is forecast to become more active across the central Indian Ocean next week. At this stage any lows that do form are likely to be outside the Australian region either to the north (10S) and/or to the west (90E). Otherwise there are not other significant tropical lows expected to be in the region in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/