IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 5:28 pm WST on Saturday 21 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 24 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is expected to move west into the region from the Timor Sea region around Wednesday 25 January. It is expected to then move west southwest to the north of Western Australia and gradually develop. By Friday conditions become more conducive for development as it moves towards the Pilbara or west Kimberley coast. While there is inherent uncertainty at this range, a coastal tropical cyclone impact by Saturday appears a plausible scenario.

The likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the region is Very Low through to Tuesday increasing to Low next Wednesday 25 January, then Moderate Friday 27 January and High on Saturday 28 January.

Likelihood of this being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

The monsoon trough is becoming more active across the central Indian Ocean west of 100E. One or more lows may form within this trough but at this stage any lows that do form are likely to remain be outside the Australian region either to the north (10S) and/or to the west (90E). There is a small chance a low occurs in the far northwest of the region west of 110E and north of 15S, north of Cocos Islands by the middle of the week. The development of such this will be monitored in coming days.

Otherwise there are not other significant tropical lows expected to be in the region in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/