IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Issued at 2:11 pm WST on Sunday 22 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 25 January 2023.
Nil.
A tropical low is expected to move west into the region from the Timor Sea on Wednesday 25 January. It is expected to then move west southwest to the north of Western Australia and gradually develop. By Friday conditions become more conducive for development as it moves towards the Pilbara or west Kimberley coast. While there is inherent uncertainty at this range, a coastal tropical cyclone impact by Saturday appears a plausible scenario.
The likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the region is Very Low through to Tuesday increasing to Low on Wednesday 25 January, then Moderate by late Thursday 26 January and High by late Friday 27 January and Saturday 28 January.
The monsoon trough is becoming more active across the central Indian Ocean north of 10S and west of 100E with evidence of a weak low forming near 8S 89E (outside the Australian region). This low, or another one yet to form may occur along this trough but at this stage any lows that do form are likely to remain outside the Australian region either to the north (10S) and/or to the west (90E). There is a small chance a low occurs in the far northwest of the region west of 100E and north of 12S, northwest of Cocos Islands by the middle of the week. The likelihood of this being a tropical cyclone in the region remains very low.
Otherwise there are not other significant tropical lows expected to be in the region in the next seven days.
The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/