Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 23 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 26 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is expected to move west into the region from the Timor Sea on Wednesday 25 January when it has a Low likelihood of being a tropical cyclone. This increases to Moderate on Thursday 26 January and High on Friday 27 January as it moves south towards the Pilbara or west Kimberley coast and strengthens. It is expected to cross the coast as a tropical cyclone on Saturday 28 January. The likelihood of it being a tropical cyclone then decreases to Low on Sunday 29 January and Very Low Monday 30 January as it moves inland and weakens.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Low

Thursday:

Moderate

The monsoon trough is becoming more active across the central Indian Ocean to the northwest of Cocos Island. A tropical low may form along this trough but is expected to remain weak and outside of the Australian region.

No other significant tropical lows are expected to be in the region in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/