Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 8:18 am WST on Wednesday 25 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 28 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low was located in the Timor Sea, near 12S 127E, about 260 kilometres north of Kalumburu at 7am Wednesday. It is forecast to move to the west southwest on Wednesday and Thursday then turn south towards the Pilbara or west Kimberley coast by Friday. It should remain weak and has a Very Low likelihood of developing into a tropical cyclone before dissipating at some stage on the weekend.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

A tropical low may form within the monsoon trough in the central Indian Ocean north of 10S outside the Australian region. The trough and potential low may shift south of of 10S and west of 105E on Sunday 29 January. The likelihood it developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low on Tuesday 31 January with the likely movement away from Christmas Island. Although this may bring increased thunderstorm activity to Christmas Island and later possibly to the Cocos Islands, there are no indications of a direct tropical cyclone impact.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/