Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 26 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 29 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low was located well off the west Kimberley coast, near 13.5 122.5E, about 470 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu at 8am Thursday 26 January. It is forecast to move towards the southwest and approach the Pilbara coast on Friday. The low would remain as a weak system, possibly dissipating near the coast or overland on the weekend.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

A tropical low may form within the monsoon trough in the central Indian Ocean, north of 10S outside the Australian region. The trough and potential low may move south of 10S and west of 105E on Sunday 29 January. The likelihood of the low developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low on Wednesday 1 February as it moves towards the west, away from Christmas Island. This may bring increased thunderstorm activity to Christmas Island and later to the Cocos Islands, but there are no indications of the low developing into a significant tropical system.

There are no other tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/