Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:07 pm WST on Friday 27 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Monday 30 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (11U) is forming within the monsoon trough in the central Indian Ocean and at 1pm WST (11:30am CCT) was near 10.7S 99.3E. The likelihood of this system developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low on Wednesday 1st February, with a likely movement to the west further away from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. On Thursday 2nd and Friday 3rd February there remains a small risk of 11U being a tropical cyclone, though it may be outside the Australian region, and as such the risk for the region reduces to Very Low. Additionally, this low is expected to increase thunderstorm activity for the Cocos(Keeling) Islands as it moves west. No tropical cyclone impacts are expected for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

From mid to late next week the monsoon is forecast to redevelop over northern Australia, increasing the risk of tropical activity over the tropics. However, no other significant tropical lows are expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/