Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Saturday 28 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 31 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low (11U) is embedded within the monsoon trough in the central Indian Ocean and at 1pm WST (11:30am CCT) was near 10.0S 96.8E. There chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the Australian region during the next seven days is Very Low. 11U is forecast to continue to move to the west, further away from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. However, it is expected to increase thunderstorm activity for the Cocos(Keeling) Islands during the next few days. No tropical cyclone impacts are expected for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

From mid to late next week the monsoon is forecast to develop over northern Australia, increasing the risk of tropical activity over the tropics. However, no other significant tropical lows are expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/