Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 30 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 2 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (11U) lies to the west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands in the central Indian Ocean. The low is forecast to move southwest and remain as a weak system, before moving out of the Australian region on Thursday or Friday. The chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days is Very Low.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

There are currently no other significant tropical lows in the region. The monsoon trough is likely to become active across the tropics, to the south of the Indonesian Archipelago during the week.

Weak lows may develop along the trough, mainly in the vicinity of Christmas Island and in the Timor Sea by late weekend. The low in the Timor Sea is expected to remain as a weak system in the next seven days. However, the low near Christmas Island may have the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone next week. The rating for this low is expected to increase to Low from Monday 6 February.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/