Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 31 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Friday 3 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (11U) to the west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands in the central Indian Ocean is slowly moving southwest. The low is forecast to remain as a weak system, before moving out of the Western Australian region on Thursday or Friday. The chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days is Very Low.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

The monsoon is becoming active with increased thunderstorm activity across the Indian Ocean, south of Indonesian Archipelago. A weak low (12U) has formed along the trough, to the southeast of Christmas Island. The environmental conditions are likely to improve over the coming days, with the risk of the low developing into a tropical cyclone increasing from Sunday onwards.

The low is expected to remain slow moving over the central Indian Ocean, well to the south of Christmas Island or to the west of WA coast. Longer term movement is forecast to be towards the west southwest over open waters. The rating for this low to develop into a tropical cyclone will increase to Low on Sunday, Moderate on Monday and Tuesday next week.

No other significant lows are expected in the region over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/