IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 1 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 4 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (11U) was around 12.1S 91.2E at 1pm Wednesday, around 600 km west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands is slowly moving southwest. The low is forecast to remain west of 95E, and then move out of the region during next week. The chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone within the Western region in the next seven days is Very Low.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

A weak low near 13.8S 115.5E at 1pm Wednesday is likely to be transient, and 12U is expected to develop along the trough, east southeast of Christmas Island late this working week. The environmental conditions are suitable for the low to deepen by late weekend and into Monday. The low is expected to remain slow moving, before moving west or southwest from Monday. The rating for this low, 12U, to develop into a tropical cyclone will increase to Low on Sunday/Monday, Moderate on Tuesday/Wednesday.

A small amount of model guidance has a slight risk of a low, 13U, developing in the Browse Basin late weekend. If it does form and develop it is likely to track southwest over open waters north of the Pilbara coast from Monday to Wednesday. The rating for this low, 13U, to develop into a tropical cyclone will increase to Low on Monday to Wednesday.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/