Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 3 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Monday 6 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (11U) was located in the Indian Ocean near 12.8S 90.3E at 11am WST Friday, about 710 km west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. This low is currently slow moving, but is expected to drift eastwards over the weekend. From early next week, it is expected to turn back towards the southwest and conditions will become more favourable for it to develop.

The risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone is Very Low over the weekend, increasing slightly to Low on Monday and Tuesday the 6th and 7th of February, and then increasing to Moderate on Wednesday the 8th of February. The risk will increase further later in the week, however the system may move westward out of the Western Region from Thursday onwards, so the overall risk of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Region remains Moderate on Thursday and Friday the 9th and 10th of February.

This system is not expected to pose a tropical cyclone threat to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, however it may produce increased winds and rainfall about the islands over the weekend and early next week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Low

A second weak tropical low (12U) was located well to the northwest of the WA coastline near 16.0S 109.1E at 11am WST Friday, about 720km south-southeast of Christmas Island and 850km northwest of Exmouth. Conditions are unfavourable for this system to develop, and it is expected to remain slow moving and weaken further over the coming days. The probability of 12U developing into a tropical cyclone is Very Low.

A third tropical low (13U) is forecast to develop over open waters northwest of the Kimberley on Sunday or early next week. This system is likely to track to the west-southwest over open waters well north of the Pilbara coast through next week. Conditions are somewhat favourable for development, and the probability of this systme developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low on Monday the 6th of February, and to Moderate from Wednesday the 8th of February to Friday the 10th of February.

Whether it develops or not, tropical low 13U will not pose a threat to the WA coast or Christmas Island.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/