IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 5 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 8 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical low (11U) was located in the Indian Ocean near 12.3S 94.3E at 11am WST Sunday, about 270 km west of the Cocos (Keeling) Island. The low was moving east at 26 kilometres per hour.

It is expected to pass close to the islands tonight or on Monday with increased risk of strong winds and rain impacts. There is increasing chance that it may develop into a tropical cyclone early in the week. The system ratings are Moderate on Monday 6th and Tuesday 7th February, increasing to High from Wednesday 8th February to Friday 10th February. Once it passes close to the islands, the low is expected to continue moving towards the east, before turning and moving towards the southwest, away from the islands, from late Tuesday onwards.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tropical low (13U) is forecast to form over open waters, west of the Browse Basin on Monday. The low is likely to track west-southwest over open waters, staying well north of the Pilbara coast through next week. Conditions are favourable for development. The probability of this system developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low on Tuesday 7th February, Moderate on Wednesday 8th February and High on Thursday and Friday, 9th and 10th February. The system is does not pose a direct threat to the WA coast or Christmas Island.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/