IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 4:28 pm WST on Monday 6 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 9 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical low (11U) was located in the Indian Ocean near 11.8S 98.6E at 11am WST Monday, about 200 km east northeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Island. The low was moving east at 25 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low (11U) has moved east of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is continuing to move east away from the Islands. 11U is forecast to curve towards the south, then to the southwest across the Indian Ocean from Tuesday onwards. The system has a High chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday, but it is likely to be too far away to have any impact on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Risk of 11U being a tropical cyclone within the Western Region is High Thursday, but risk decreases to Moderate Friday, Low Saturday, then Very Low Sunday, Monday and Tuesday as the system moves west out of the region.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tropical low 13U lies near 11.8 S 119.0 E at 11am Monday, and is moving slowly southeast. 13U has strengthened in the last few hours and the likelihood of reaching tropical cyclone intensity has increased. The system is still expected to track west to southwest, remaining over open waters, well off the Pilbara coast during the week. The risk of 13U reaching tropical cyclone intensity within the Western Region is High for the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/