Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 9:50 pm WST on Monday 6 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 9 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Tropical Cyclone Freddy has developed and at 8 pm AWST was located near 12.6S 118.5E, that is 720 km northwest of Broome and is moving south southwest at 12 kilomtres per hour. It poses no threat to the Western Australian coast. For the latest information please refer to the warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

High

Wednesday:

High

Thursday:

High

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical low (11U) was located in the Indian Ocean near 11.8S 98.6E at 11am WST Monday, about 200 km east northeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Island. The low was moving east at 25 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low (11U) has moved east of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is continuing to move east away from the Islands. 11U is forecast to curve towards the south, then to the southwest across the Indian Ocean from Tuesday onwards. The system has a High chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday, but it is likely to be too far away to have any impact on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Risk of 11U being a tropical cyclone within the Western Region is High Thursday, but risk decreases to Moderate Friday, Low Saturday, then Very Low Sunday, Monday and Tuesday as the system moves west out of the region.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Low

Wednesday:

High

Thursday:

High

There are no other signficant systems in the region and none expected in the next five days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/